Intro

The EU aims to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. But are we on track? How far could emissions be from this target if no additional measures are introduced, and what could be achieved with further action?

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission projections help answer these questions. They show how emissions are expected to evolve over the coming decades across different sectors of the economy and under different policy scenarios. This information helps policymakers assess progress, identify where further action is needed and support timely, effective climate action.

What the data are telling us

• Emissions of GHGs are expected to decrease steadily over the coming years. It is estimated that EU GHG emissions (under the scope of the European Climate Law) in 2030 will be 54% lower than in 1990 under the ‘with additional measures’ scenario.

• The reduction will not take place equally across sectors. The power and residential sectors are expected to decrease their emissions substantially by 2030. However, emissions from international aviation and shipping are expected to continue growing.  International navigation remains broadly stable, indicating that aviation and shipping show much more limited progress than sectors such as energy industries.

• Despite the projected reductions, more efforts are needed to meet the ambitious EU targets for 2030 and, eventually, achieve climate neutrality by 2050. 

• The quality of data on GHG projections has been improving. More detailed and elaborate projections are being provided by the Member States, contributing to a better understanding of future EU emissions.

EU Member States are required to report their GHG projections every 2 years (and optionally every year) under Article 18(1)(b) of the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action. They extend until 2050 and are disaggregated by sector and gas. 
 
Projections are estimates based on a modelling exercise that shows how GHG emissions could develop in the future. These estimates depend on assumptions on the factors that affect emissions, such as demographics and economic growth, international fuel prices, and anticipated effect of policies and their implementing measures. 

Two main scenarios are usually submitted by Member States, reflecting different sets of assumptions: (1) with existing measures (WEM) and (2) with additional measures (WAM). WEM includes policies and measures that have already been implemented or that have been approved and their implementation is imminent. WAM also includes the additional effects of planned measures. 

These estimates are submitted by Member States through the Reportnet platform and compiled by the EEA. 

According to these projections, EU emissions will continue to decrease in the coming decades, but at a slower pace than required to meet EU 2030 targets set under the European package Climate Law, and the goal of a carbon-neutral Europe for 2050. . While some sectors are expected to decrease their emissions substantially, others, such as aviation and shipping, are projected to increase. This highlights the need for decisive and timely action to meet Europe’s climate goals.